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100 to 1 in the Stock Market: A Distinguished Security Analyst Tells How to Make More of Your Investment Opportunities, by Thomas William
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In 100 to 1 in the Stock Market, Thomas Phelps discloses the secrets and strategies to increasing your wealth one hundredfold through buy-and-hold investing. Unlike the short-term trading trends that are popular today, Phelps's highly logical, yet radical approach focuses on identifying compounding machines in public markets, buying their stocks, and holding these investments long term for at least ten years.
In this indispensable guide, Phelps analyzes what made the big companies of his day so profitable for the diligent, long-term investor. You will learn how to identify and invest in profitable business models without visible growth ceilings that will quickly increase your earnings.
Worth its weight in gold (and then some), 100 to 1 in the Stock Market illuminates the way to the path of long-term wealth for you and your heirs. With this classic, yet highly relevant approach, you will pick companies wisely and watch your investments soar!
Thomas William Phelps (1903-1992) spent over 40 years in the investing world working as a private investor, columnist, analyst, and financial advisor. His illustrious investing career began just before the stock market crash in 1929 and lasted into the 1970s. In 1927, he began his career with The Wall Street Journal where he was a reporter, news editor, and chief. Beginning in 1936, he edited Barron's National Financial Weekly. From 1949 to 1960, he served as an assistant to the chairman and manager of the economics department at Socony Mobil Oil. Following this venture, he was a partner in the investment firm of Scudder, Stevens & Clark until his retirement in 1970.
"One of the five greatest investment books you've never heard of"
— The Daily Reckoning
"Of all the books on investing that I've read over the years, 100 to 1 in the stock market one was at once, the most pleasurable and most challenging to my own beliefs."
— Value Walk (ValueWalk.com)
"For years we handed out copies of Mr. Phelps book as bonuses."
— Timothy Lutts, Cabot Investing Advice, one of the largest investment advisories and newsletters in the country since 1970
- Sales Rank: #287815 in Books
- Published on: 2015-01-01
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.21" h x .81" w x 6.14" l, 1.41 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 302 pages
Most helpful customer reviews
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
I feel this is more like an interesting historical read -- and one that's superbly ...
By D to the G
I appreciate and admire this book for the writing. In this interesting work, you'll find well-formed English applied in clear, exceptional prose. It really reminds me of an era of writing (and editing) that is mostly lost today. It is, in fact, a five-star example of clear, correct writing.
Unfortunately, in my view, the investing approach Phelps espouses is completely untenable. It advocates techniques with profoundly low probability for success. The author is encouraging others to hunt for unicorns because, don't you see, unicorns exist: "Here's one (points to one stock). And here's another (points to another chart)." Many, many would-be investment paths are littered would would-be unicorns, and for every Buffet who has managed to wrangle a whole stable of them, there are literally millions of market participant --extremely smart, capable ones -- who hold the same goal but fail miserably. And that is the problem: flipping a coin a thousand times on one side is possible, but it's extremely improbable.
If I were rating this book on the validity of the ideas, it would be a one-star rating. However, I feel this is more like an interesting historical read -- one that's superbly written.
10 of 10 people found the following review helpful.
Classic Buffettesque book
By blueridgemountains83
This book takes the perspective of the extremely long term investor focused on finding compounding machines in the public markets. It is geared towards the investor who spends the bulk of the investment time on the diligence process rather than trading and who is focused on buy and hold to an extreme (10+ years). The investor who benefits from this book is a rarity in today's hyper short term focused "investor" aka speculator. This book is worth its weight in gold if one can effectively implement the concepts described here. Although it is conceptually simple, the ideas in this book are more powerful than the other investment concepts in the market today.
27 of 31 people found the following review helpful.
Another Book Review From The Aleph Blog
By David Merkel
How can a book be largely true, but not be a good book? By offering people a way to make a lot of money that is hard to do, but portraying it as easy. It can be done, and a tiny number succeed at it, but most of the rest lose money or don't make much in the process. This is such a book.
Let me illustrate my point with an example. Toward the end of every real estate bull market, books come out on how easy it is to make money flipping homes. The books must sell to some degree or the publishers wouldn't publish them. Few actually succeed at it because:
* It's a lot of work
* It's competitive
* It only works well when you have a bunch of people who are uneducated about the value of their homes and are willing to sell them to you cheap, and/or offer you cheap financing while you reposition it.
* Transaction costs are significant, and improvements don't always pay back what you put in.
You could make a lot of money at it, but it is unlikely. Now with this book, "100 to 1 in the Stock Market," the value proposition is a little different:
* Find one company that will experience stunning compound growth over 20-30+ years.
* Invest heavily in it, and don't diversify into a lot of other stocks, because that will dilute your returns.
* Hold onto it, and don't sell any ever, ever, ever! (Forget Lord Rothschild, who said the secret to his wealth was that he always sold too soon.)
* Learn to mention the company name idly in passing, and happily live off of the dividends, should there be any. ;)
Here are the problems. First, identifying the stock will be tough. Less than 1% of all stocks do that. Are you feeling lucky? How lucky? That lucky? Wow.
Second, most people will pick a dog of a stock, and lose a lot of money. If you aren't aware, more than half of all stocks lose money if held for a long time. Most of the rest perform meh. Even if you pick a stock you think has a lot of growth potential, there is often a lot of competition. Will this be the one to survive? Will some new technology obsolete this? Will financing be adequate to let the plan get to fruition without a lot of dilution of value to stockholders.
Third, most people can't buy and hold a single stock, even if it is doing really well. Most succumb to the temptation to take profits, especially when the company hits a rough patch, and all companies hit rough patches, non excepted.
Fourth, when you do tell friends about how smart you are, they will try to dissuade you from your position. So will the financial media, even me sometimes. As Cramer says, "the bear case always sounds more intelligent." Beyond that, never underestimate envy. :(
But suppose even after reading this, you still want to be a home run hitter, and will settle for nothing less. Is this the book for you? Yes. it will tell you what sorts of stocks appreciate by 100 times or more, even if finding them will still be rough.
This book was written in 1972, so it did not have the benefit of Charlie Munger's insights into the "Lollapalooza" effect. What does it take for a stock to compound so much?
* It needs a sustainable competitive advantage. The company has to have something critical that would be almost impossible for another firm to replicate or obsolete.
* It needs a very competent management team that is honest, and shareholder oriented, not self-oriented.
* They have to have a balance sheet capable of funding growth, and avoiding crashing in downturns, while rarely issuing additional shares.
* It has to earn a high return on capital deployed.
* It has to be able to reinvest earnings such that they earn a high return in the business over a long period of time.
* That means the opportunity has to be big, and can spread like wildfire.
* Finally, it implies that not a lot of cash flow needs to be used to maintain the investments that the company makes, leaving more money to invest in new assets.
You would need most if not all of these in order to compound capital 100 times. That's hard. Very hard.
Now if you want a lighter version of this, a reasonable alternative, look at some of the books that Peter Lynch wrote, where he looked to compound investments 10 times or more. Ten-baggers, he called them. Same principles apply, but he did it in the context of a diversified portfolio. That is still very tough to do, but something that mere mortals could try, and even if you don't succeed, you won't lose a ton in the process.
One Up On Wall Street: How To Use What You Already Know To Make Money In The Market
Beating the Street
Quibbles
Already given.
Summary / Who Would Benefit from this Book
You can buy this book to enjoy the good writing, and learn about past investments that did incredibly well. You can buy it to try to hit a home run against a major league pitcher, and you only get one trip to the plate. (Good luck, you will need it.)
But otherwise don't buy the book, it is not realistic for the average person to apply in investing.
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